DC’s Seattle Dota Diary #5: Analyzing TI2 Elimination Matches

As promised! This is the 5th on-site analysis ‘diary’ entry from big time Chinese commentator DC from during TI2. It covers the first half of TI2. Doesn’t seem that he wrote another one for the end of TI2, but entries 4 and 3 have both been translated in earlier entries here, and here, respectively. Some good insight on all the Chinese teams halfway through TI2, as well as a look at opinions on many EU and NA teams.

Original: http://dota2.sgamer.com/news/201209/147013.html

Not much happened yesterday, so I took a little break and didn’t write an entry for the day. To have anything worth writing requires sincerity anyway! As the elimination stages have gotten under way, overall results for Chinese teams haven’t been as great as everyone expected. DK dropped straight into the loser’s bracket, iG nearly got taken down, these are all warning signs for the Chinese contingent. Must not get careless; many of the losses in the first day of elimination matches have been of our own doing, and not any amazing performance by the opponent. The only exception is LGD, who are so steady that it’s scary. All the other teams need to tighten it up!

Let’s do a simple overview of the matches today:

1. LGD advances easily, 2-0 over Orange

The outcome and flow of the fighting pretty much followed expectations given our knowledge of the two teams’ skill level, not much suspense involved. LGD won pretty smoothly, and judging by LGD’s effectiveness lately, if you don’t win a couple lanes against them, you have no chance at all. These few days, iG’s ChuaN has been hanging out a lot with Orange. At the start of today, I suddenly noticed Orange’s ice seeming sluggish and strange, tsk tsk…… LGD faces Zenith tomorrow, and after they win they’ll be in the winner’s finals; even though in overall skill LGD wins out, but they should still be careful and play safe. Orange is gonna go play with CLG, I think they shouldn’t have too much trouble, Asian teams this time are generally stronger.

2. CoL plays with fire and burns themselves, 1-2 losing to Zenith

Originally CoL wasn’t predicted to get far yet in the first game in this matchup, CoL stomped Zenith, surprising everyone. Just as Yao was laughing that the “big brother team” was about to get dumped into loser’s bracket, the second game CoL brought out a strange and unexplainable lineup, confusing everyone including themselves, and Zenith grasped the chance to pull the scores even at 1 game a piece. In the third game, CoL performed poorly, and were powerless to stop Zenith. After a scare, Zenith successfully advances.

Currently, it looks like banning Invoker automatically against Zenith is a pretty good choice.

3. iG edges out EG, 2-1 in a surprising manner

What was originally thought to be a complete destruction didn’t stray too far from expectations in the first game. 430’s Templar Assassin and Zhou’s Morphling got kills at will, leaving the result of the first game basically out of question. In the second game, expectations were turned on their head as EG picked up Tidehunter and Enigma to go against iG’s system revolving around Bounty Hunter, Sand King, and Leshrac. iG’s Lesh and Sand King roaming was countered perfectly by ward vision, leaving them completely useless in early game, and the overall lack of AOE effects left iG unable to defend in an already disadvantage position. In the end EG took game 2 by a huge score margin, tying the match up.

The 3rd game was back and forth and very tight, and at one point iG’s prospects looked very poor indeed, leaving us to worry for them; fortunately, Fear’s Morphling committed many unforced errors and fed at crucial points, letting Zhou’s Luna get ahead in farm and items. Ultimately Luna with 6 big items pushed EG in, and great iG edges the match out over EG.

iG showed obvious signs of overconfidence in game 2, displaying their impetuous side. EG’s skill is certainly nothing to scoff at, but iG’s pathetic loss in game 2 was still a little too much, hopefully they make the adjustments in time for the next matches. Tomorrow iG meets defending champions NaVi, this is a big test!

4. DK loses to NaVi 1-2, drops into loser’s bracket

The first game was so bad it nearly blinded the audience, DK mysteriously picked a lineup resembling iG and not their own. They seemed completely lost in how to play, and within minutes lost all their lanes, within 25 minutes lost the entire game in a bloodbath, unbelievable.

Under terrible circumstances from the first game’s result, in the second game DK regrouped and this time thoroughly displayed their skill and experience to make needed adjustments and took the game in a steady and confident fashion to tie up the match. In the second game longDD’s Prophet performed excellently, while NaVi’s Lycan was a bit weak. After some back and forth, the game eventually fell into DK’s control, and overall DK was fairly successful.

For DK in the third game, they seemed a bit lost after drafting Naga Siren. Even though Burning had a great early game and farmed out key items such as Radiance within 15 minutes, DK’s attempts at teamfighting and pushing tier 2 tower with only 4 players, minus Burning’s Naga, was quite a mistake and led to them getting wiped by NaVi. This led to Burning needing to force himself out of the farming tempo to teleport and save his team with Naga’s ultimate. Afterwards, NaVi went on an all-out offensive, successfully getting many kills via ganks in DK’s jungle. Even though Naga quickly farmed out a Heart as well, but NaVi had already established a lead via their teamfighting and team pushing, and ultimately NaVi easily took DK’s high ground and the game, and match to walk into the winner’s semi-final!

DK’s first opponent in the loser’s bracket is Darer, a team that shouldn’t be ignored. DK add oil in the next day, I have always believed that DK and NaVi are similar in skill, and this match DK’s execution has been problematic. Especially the bloodbath in the first game… DK’s path ahead is difficult!

5. EHOME vs Mouz, easy beating, steadily advancing

EHOME again runs the Wisp plus Tiny lineup. It’s obvious that this works even better against European teams, and LanM’s Tiny dominated the entire game, easily taking care of the opponent to get into the next round.

EHOME’s next match is against CoL, in preliminaries EHOME played against CoL to a 1-1 result, so they know each other fairly well by now. 71 said before that they aren’t actually very confident of being able to handle CoL, but let’s leave that to fate, there is no mercy in the loser’s bracket! Young PCT has become the focus in EHOME this time, so how to help him adjust and adapt to changing roles and needs in the team is a key for EHOME in the upcoming matches!

6. TongFu flirts with danger, defeats M5 to advance

Hao’s Anti-mage did very well, Mu’s Invoker is sharp as ever, and facing an early deficit they were steady and adapted with fast reflexes and elegant teamfights to form the core for TongFu to rally around and turn the deficit over. Worth noting, M5 picked Mirana but didn’t let Vigoss take the reins, instead they put him in the 4 position with Tidehunter, and it was Vigoss’ mistake at a key point that allowed TongFu to sustain the immense pressure, find breathing room, and ultimately turn the game around!

TongFu faces EG next. EG almost beat an iG that must’ve been pretending to be a bunch of little kids, but still, EG has got some skill behind them, so be careful!

The loser’s bracket was a quick, decisive bunch of killing. The best of 1 format left no room for mercy. In the first day of elimination, the “3 Ms” are gone (Mouz, M5, MTW), pretty much expected based on preliminary group results. DK’s loss to NaVi dropping to loser’s bracket was very unfortunate, and whether they can make it back up from the danger-ridden lower bracket is hard to say. Up to this point, no one can rest, so with your backs to the wall, let’s see your best!

Before and after the matches, DK seemed very uptight, continuously discussing amongst themselves strategies and tactics, analyzing wins and mistakes. Against NaVi they didn’t seem like the proud and fearsome DK of old, but instead seemed to lack confidence…

iG’s performance seemed just a bit impatient and inexperienced, a bit unsteady. Will they be able to do as we all hope, and teach NaVi a lesson or two for the Chinese? Just as I am writing this, Zhou walks by me and sees my sentiment, pats me on the shoulder and confidently says “For sure, just leave it to us!” as he turns away…

LGD leaves us very assured of their performances, and even though Zenith will be a tough opponent, they still shouldn’t have too much trouble. Here I emphasize again, Zenith’s Invoker can and should be banned, or you can pick him first and give him to Yao, either choice is good.

TongFu there isn’t much to say, they’re in decent form, but still have some problems. M5 was a weak opponent lacking a strong roster, with poor performances, so victory won’t come this easily again, add oil!

This hotel here in America is very interesting, when I was about to put this post up I realized that the wireless internet had gone out. After asking, I understood that they don’t provide it over weekends! My mind was blank for a bit… so this post is late, tomorrow’s I better write it up and post it at the tournament venue.

After elimination matches have started, the overall outlook is not nearly as simple as originally, and several big opponents have shown their strength and are looking strong. What was originally a calm and assured heart is now floating in the air of suspense again. Chinese army, let’s show them!

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